As reported during the INC Congress, production in 2021/2022 season was estimated at 290,000 metric tons, and carry over is forecasted to end up between 30,000 and 40,000 MT. According to the Aegean Exporters Association, total exports between September 1 and June 18, 2022 added up to 205,614 MT, up by 12% from the same period last year, and are expected to reach over 250,000 MT by the end of the season. Europe remains the top importer adding up to 105,930 MT YTD.
At the time of writing this report, the 2022/23 crop was progressing very well. Rainfall and winter weather conditions were very favorable. Thus, a production of about the same volume as 2021/22 or slightly higher is forecasted. Quality is anticipated to be very good as well. Because of the very attractive price levels, exports are expected to reach 270,000 MT.
The production in China in 2021/22 added up to 220,000 MT, which is 16% above the previous season. Expectations for 2022/23 are to reach around 220,000 MT again. Green raisins account for between 60% and 80% of the Chinese production and they are mostly destined to domestic consumption. The remaining production is mainly composed of Sultana and Thompson.
Raisin domestic consumption is increasing in China through home baking, and the incorporation of raisins to yogurts and the traditional moon cakes. In contrast, there has been a decrease in exports due to COVID-19 lockdowns and extremely high freight rates. According to the Chinese Customs database, exports from January to May 2022 accounted for 7,821 MT vs. 9,334 MT for the same period in 2021. Total shipments in 2021 amounted to 20,232 MT.
On the other hand, China imports Sultanas every year, mainly from Tu00fcrkiye, USA and Uzbekistan. In 2021 total imports amounted to 25,326 MT.
The 2022/23 production is forecasted at 197,000 MT, up by 13% from 2021/22, estimated at 174,000 MT. At the time of writing this report, the crop was developing well. Drought and labor costs in California remain a concern.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data, exports between January and April added up to 24,119 MT in 2022, below 25% from the same period in 2021.
The 2022/23 production is forecasted at 220,000 MT, 22% up from the 180,000 MT estimation of 2021/22. Total exports year-to-date through April added up to 78,000 MT. Domestic consumption is estimated at 40,000 MT, but in the first quarter of 2022, it increased significantly, thus, the ending stock is expected to be lower than initially anticipated.
Forecasted at 70,000 MT for the 2022/23 season, the production in Uzbekistan remains stable. Out of this quantity, 20,000 MT are dark black raisins, which are consumed only domestically, mainly because of their high price and demand in the local market. The remaining production is Sultana. The main export markets for this origin are Russia and China. Europe is the main market for organic Sultanas. By May 2022, the Uzbekistan production was already sold out and factories were already closed, waiting for the new crop to come in.
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