According to Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) second crop estimate, mainly due to favorable rainfall throughout the season and across the producing regions, the updated forecast for 2022 is 61,288 MT dry nut-in-shell, 6% higher than the first quarter forecast of 57,723 MT, and up 15% from 2021. The planted area in South Africa is growing at a rate of 6,000 hectares per annum and production might reach between 80,000 and 100,000 MT by 2025 and 2030, respectively.
Apart from the traditional Chinese in-shell market, the industry has heavily invested into processing infrastructure, aiming to develop the kernel market u2014kernel production is bounded to keep growing.
As reported by the Australian Macadamia Society, the crop forecast has been reduced to 49,340 MT NIS (@3.5% moisture), 10% down from the previous figure of 54,930 MT, as a direct result of the torrential rain and flooding events in New South Wales and Queensland. However, Bundaberg, the largest producing region, was not impacted by these weather disruptions and by early May, harvest was well underway in this area. The crop estimate will be further updated in September.
The crop has already reached the 30,000 MT mark in 2021, and for 2022 the prediction is 50,000 MT @10% NIS moisture content (29,900/46,600 MT @3.5 m.c.). The crop growth rate for the next five years ranges between 5,000 MT and 10,000 MT/year. Thus, by 2030, the crop might reach 100,000 MT. This forecast is based on the Yunnan and Guangxi growing areas, which add up to 300,000 hectares, and account for 70% and 30% of the crop, respectively.
Crop 2022 is forecasted at 41,500 MT, 4% up from 2021. Kenyan production has been steadily growing across the last few years, and it is expected to continue at a rate of about 5% per year in the next couple of years.
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