While most of the major producing areas recently received several inches of rain, Mexico continues to suffer through a severe drought. Based on recently released US Customs data, it would appear that the 2021 crop was larger than originally forecasted but still far below the near record crop of 2020; approximately 131,996 MT (at the time of writing this report, the Mexican Government still has not published a final 2021 crop figure). Early estimates of 2022 production, while below 2019 and 2020 levels, appear to indicate a slightly larger crop than 2021; approximately 149,687 MT.
The Tri-State Growers Association concluded their annual meeting with the first estimate of the 2022 crop year. Based on input from their membership, they forecast a 2022 US crop of 139,254 MT, approximately 20% larger than the 2021 crop, but only slightly larger than the 2020 crop. Growing conditions continue to be favorable, and barring any natural disasters, quality should be good.
A good crop is expected this year after three years of significant weather disruptions. Production is anticipated to double in the next 7-8 years to reach 50,000 MT (in-shell basis) as planted area is still expanding.
The main challenge remains the fact that around 90% of the South African market is focused on China. However, cracking facilities are being developed to produce more kernel, especially for the European market, where demand is picking up.
Between 2018 and 2020, production was affected by severe droughts and 2021 saw the best crop ever since. Crop 2022 is forecasted 13.5% down from last year, at 2,950 MT.
The Australian industry has managed to maintain the supply to meet the growing domestic demand, which keeps increasing. There have been 500 hectares of pecans planted since 2019, adding up to a total planted area of over 2,000 ha, and the crop is expected to double by 2030.
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