According to industry sources and USDA reports from June 2022, forecasted at 50.7 million metric tons (in-shell basis), peanut global production for 2022/2023 is expected to remain virtually unchanged from 2021/22. Production increments are expected for India, Nigeria, Senegal, Brazil, and Ghana, which will offset the smaller crops in the US and Argentina, both forecasted down by 2% from the previous season. Indonesia and Vietnam are also anticipated to be below from 2021/22 by 1% and 3%, respectively.
Because peanut is currently outpriced by its competing crops, cotton and soybean, the overall planted area is forecasted to be lower this season. However, total production continues to increase, as average yields are expected to be higher.
As reported by the China Chamber of Commerce, peanut acreage this year is very similar to the previous seasonu2019s planted area. As discussed during the INC Congress, the cost of shipping from China was roughly 10 times higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and this is most likely to result in reduced exports and increased domestic consumption.
According to the USDA, total peanut imports are expected to rise this season and reach 1.1 M MT. Peanut oil consumption is forecasted to increase resulting in larger imports.
The Indian crop for the last two season has been about 6.5 to 7 million metric tons, and it has increased substantially (30-40%) from 2018 and 2019. The increasing trend is expected to continue for the 2022/23 season, as the crop is forecasted 3% up 2021/22. However, it might not be as significant as in the last few years since many growers are moving towards cotton or soybean due to the price differential. According to the USDA, this seasonu2019s gain in production will lead to higher exports, mainly bounded to China.
Peanut consumption in India is mainly under the form of oil, and local demand is very good and has increased substantially as of late.
As reported by the American Peanut Council, planting in the peanut crop has been slightly behind, owing to dry conditions in different producing regions. Another big factor has been the high price of cotton and corn. Therefore, the 2022/23 crop is forecasted at 2.7 M MT, marginally below 2021/22, mainly due to strong yields.
As per the Argentine Chamber of Peanuts (CAM), planted area in 2021/22 added up to 395,000 hectares, from which 389,075 were harvested. Average yield is estimated at 2.3 MT/ha kernel basis (3.28 MT/ha in-shell basis). Exports amounted to 611,873 MT of shelled peanuts, crush added up to 175,000 MT and the domestic market absorbed 88,000 MT (including blanching losses).
According to the USDA, Argentine total supply for 2022/23 is forecasted down from 2021/22 on both a smaller crop and a diminished carry-in.
As reported by the USDA, Brazil’s peanut production is anticipated to increase u2014for the fourth year in a rowu2014 to 750,000 tons in 2022/23. According to projections, this will increase domestic crush as well as peanut exports for food usage. Exports from 2021/22 are anticipated to increase by 3% to 375,000 tons. With the bigger crush, it is also anticipated that exports of peanut oil would increase, reaching 105,000 MT, which is more than twice the level seen in 2018/19.
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