Estimated at 1.166 billion pounds (528,000 metric tons, in-shell basis), the 2021/2022 crop ended rather larger than expected. There was increased growth from acreage, and the yield per acre was slightly bigger than anticipated as well. The 2022/23 crop is shaping up to be a reasonably good although not a bumper crop. The drought continues to be a concern and last April, weather was fairly irregular u2014there was a frost followed by quite warm temperatures that led to an erratic bloom. In contrast, acreage keeps increasing. Therefore, and factoring all of the above, the incoming crop is forecasted at just over a million pounds (470,000 MT).
Demand has been quite strong, in particular in the domestic market, where it has hit record highs; but also, around the world, despite logistics challenges. The pistachio industry was able to ship to all markets and to cover the Chinese New Yearu2019s demand and also support the strong European consumption. Crop 2021 shipments significantly grew over the previous year and the outlook is to reach 820 million pounds. European demand is stable to growing and Chinese demand grew compared to last year.
The continued growth in pistachio consumption is mainly based on the population increasing health awareness and plant-based protein diets, for which pistachios, being classified as a complete protein (they contain adequate amounts of all nine essential amino acids), are uniquely suited to. Furthermore, from the innovation standpoint, no-shell pistachios are creating new snacking occasions and introducing new consumers to pistachios.
According to the June 2022 IPA (Iran Pistachio Association) marketing report, from a total supply of 140,000 MT at the beginning of 2021/22 marketing year, 111,000 MT have been shipped (including domestic and export shipments plus adjustments and losses) which left an inventory of 29,000 MT at the end of June. The final carry over for this season is anticipated to end up at 15,000 MT. The 2022 crop forecast stands at 115,000 MT, 15% below the previous year, as it was severely hit by spring frost in the southern growing regions.
Crop 2020/21 total shipments hit a 10-year record of 230,000 MT (in-shell equivalent). Kernel exports have also significantly increased over the past two years, reaching 32,000 MT, and there is definitely room for growth in this category, particularly in the usage of kernels as snacks and ingredients. Green kernels and pistachio oil have growth potential as well.
Owing to the 2020/21 bumper crop, the carry-over into 2021/22 was pretty high, 190,000 MT. With an off crop estimated at 68,000 MT, total supply amounted to 258,000 MT. Total shipments (domestic plus exports) for the season year-to-date through June 2022 were forecasted at 123,000 MT resulting in an ending inventory of 135,000 MT. Due to a strong US dollar and following the last years increased supply, exports hit a record and are estimated to reach 33,000 MT in 2021/22 MY; while domestic consumption is anticipated to decrease, from the average of around 100-110,000 MT to 84,000 MT. Following the 2021/22 off crop, the 2022/23 crop is forecasted at 190,000 MT.
The southeast of Tu00fcrkiye represents around 96% of the overall pistachio production. The areas of Sanliurfa and Gazianterp are the biggest producers, accounting together for 75-80% of the total production, followed by Siirt and Adiyamant, adding up to 392,000 hectares, from which 70% are already bearing.
Pistachio production has been growing 500 MT per year until last season when crop reached about 2,700 MT. However, now new plantings are starting to bear and the growth trend is expected to increase to 1,000 MT per year.
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